# Mont Laurént: money model workings

Prepared by Team Empathy, 23 October 2026, for the Search & AI strategy at https://montlaurent-report.teamempathy.co.nz.
Every input below comes from Mont Laurént's own accounts or from triangulated keyword data, and every result is
reproducible with a calculator. Currency is AUD throughout. The model covers **non-branded** organic search in
**Australia** for the **online store** only: branded searches (people typing Mont Laurént) sit on top, unchanged, and
corporate orders invoiced outside Shopify are excluded entirely, which keeps the model conservative.

## 1. The value of one non-branded click

| Input | Value | Source and arithmetic |
|---|---|---|
| Shopify Google organic | 20,405 sessions, 1,002 orders, order value A$149.74 | Shopify Growth > Attribution, last non-direct click, Google / Organic row, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026, all markets (Australia 99.1% of sales), branded and non-branded together. Conversion 1,002 / 20,405 = 4.9106% |
| Why not the sessions report | 126,822 Search > google sessions | Shopify's sessions report files Google Ads visits (google.com referrer) under Google search, so it blends paid and organic. The Attribution report separates them (Google Paid: 6,244 orders, A$1,031,101 total sales) |
| Why A$149.74 and not total sales per order | A$172,846 / 1,002 = A$172.50 | The row's Total sales includes GST and shipping. A$149.74 is Shopify's own average order value for the row, on the same basis as the sales report's gross sales per order (A$149.31) |
| GA4 non-branded Australian conversion ratio | x 0.9189 | GA4 Google organic, Australia: non-branded 4.203% / all 4.574% (split method in section 3) |
| Order value ratio | x 0.9964 | GA4 non-branded AU order value / all AU Google organic, capped at 1 so Shopify's figure is never lifted |
| Non-branded conversion rate | 4.5123% (shown as 4.51%) | 4.9106% x 0.9189 |
| Non-branded order value | A$149.2032 (shown as A$149.20) | A$149.74 x 0.9964 |
| Visits per Search Console click | 0.8376 | Shopify Google organic sessions 20,405 / Search Console web clicks, all markets, 12 months, 24,361. Pairs Shopify's per-session conversion with Shopify's own session count |
| **Value per non-branded click** | **A$5.6392** (shown as A$5.64) | 4.5123% x 0.8376 x A$149.2032 |
| Upper band, not used | A$6.88 | Swaps in GA4's Australian non-branded sessions per click (1.0217) |
| Return rate | 0.682% | Shopify returns A$10,084.84 / gross sales A$1,478,462.92, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026 |
| First-order share | 91.4% | Shopify Google organic: 916 new customers / 1002 orders |

## 2. The market and the share

1. Measured core: **117,455 searches a month** (triangulated median of Google Keyword Planner, SEMrush and DataForSEO, Australia, October 2026; products Mont Laurént sells, searched with buying intent; plural and word-order variants counted once).
2. With the long tail: 117,455 x 1.35 x 12 = **1,902,771 searches a year**.
3. Winnable organic click pool: 1,902,771 x 0.20 = **380,554 clicks a year** (31,713 a month). 0.20 is the share of searches that end in an organic click once ads, shopping carousels and AI answers take theirs.
4. Today: Search Console, Australia, 21 Oct 2025 to 21 Oct 2026: 10,409 non-branded named clicks + 9,263 anonymised = **19,672 clicks**, which is 5.17% of the pool.
5. 1% of the pool = **3,806 clicks a year** = 143.8 orders = **A$21,460 gross a year** (A$21,314 net of returns).

| Case | Share | Non-branded clicks / yr | Orders / yr | New customers / yr | Non-branded revenue / yr (gross) | New revenue / yr (gross) | New revenue / yr (net) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 5.17% | 19,672 | 744 | 680 | A$110,934 | - | - |
| Conservative | 8.00% | 30,444 | 1,151 | 1,052 | A$171,682 | +A$60,748 | +A$60,333 |
| Mid | 12.00% | 45,667 | 1,726 | 1,578 | A$257,522 | +A$146,588 | +A$145,588 |
| High | 16.00% | 60,889 | 2,301 | 2,104 | A$343,363 | +A$232,429 | +A$230,843 |

Revenue = clicks x 5.6392. Share x 100 x A$21,460 gives the same figure.

**Why these shares.** Mont Laurént starts at 5.2% of the pool and already ranks in the top three on
personalised wine and champagne glasses. The six-month plan covers the core territories with about 115 pieces.
Conservative (8%) is the core pages tidied and the occasion collections written; mid (12%, about 2.3x today's
non-branded clicks) is the core clusters covered; high (16%, about 3.1x) is roughly the organic scale the closest
gifting rivals already reach. Like-for-like check on DataForSEO's own traffic model, which estimates Mont Laurént at
11,626 visits a month (branded and non-branded together). Only the
non-branded part grows in the model, so only that part is scaled: branded is 12.8% of today's Australian
clicks (2,884 of 22,556) and the non-branded
87.2% is multiplied by the case's growth in non-branded clicks. Mid:
11,626 x (0.128 + 0.872 x 2.321) =
25,024 a month. High: 11,626 x
(0.128 + 0.872 x 3.095) = 32,870 a month. Yoonek, the largest
of the four core rivals (stores selling the same personalised glassware or leather), sits at
32,890 on the same model.

**No lifetime ladder.** 92.8% of the store's orders in
the last twelve months were first orders and under 1% of a monthly cohort orders again in a typical month (Shopify
cohort analysis), so the model counts orders only and does not project repeat value. The mid case brings
898 more new customers a year than today.

**Timing.** The chart prices the mid case arriving: 10% of the new revenue by month 3, 35% by month 6, 70% by
month 9, 100% by month 12 (A$110,934, A$125,593, A$162,240, A$213,546, A$257,522).

## 3. How branded was split from non-branded

- Search Console, Australia: branded clicks 2,884 of 22,561 = 12.78% (Mont Laurént and its spellings). Anonymised clicks count as non-branded.
- Two GA4 Australian organic totals exist, and the split uses the first: **GA4 Google organic only, Australia** (source = google), 21 Oct 2025 to 21 Oct 2026: 23,045 sessions, 1,054 purchases, A$168,846. **GA4 all organic search, Australia** (Google, Bing and every other engine): 24,746 sessions, 1,179 purchases, A$194,535, quoted only in the New Zealand smell test below.
- Branded visits convert 1.690x other visits (homepage + brand pages vs every other landing page), order value ratio 1.018.
- Solved so the totals match GA4 exactly: non-branded 4.203% conversion, branded 7.105%; non-branded 79.9% of revenue (A$134,834).
- Cross-check: today's clicks priced at A$5.64 = A$110,934, 17.7% below GA4's own non-branded figure, so the baseline is conservative.

## 4. Smell tests
- **secondary market converting higher than home market**: GA4 all organic search (every engine): New Zealand 20 purchases on 303 sessions; Australia 1179 on 24,746 (4.76%). New Zealand is 20 purchases (too small to read). The model runs on Australia only, so nothing is ported.
- **Shopify-basis non-branded CR below Shopify blended CR**: 4.51% non-branded (derived) vs 4.91% Shopify Google Organic blended PASSES.
- **non-branded converting below branded**: non-branded 4.20% vs branded 7.10% (GA4 AU Google organic, split as above) PASSES.
- **Shopify vs GA4 on organic**: Shopify Google Organic A$172,846 from 1,002 orders; GA4 Google organic only, Australia, A$168,846 from 1,054 purchases Close. Shopify is load-bearing; GA4 only shapes the split.
- **the sessions dataset trap**: ShopifyQL sessions Search > google = 126,822 sessions, against 24,361 Search Console clicks a year That row carries Google Ads traffic (google.com referrer). Not used. The Attribution report's Organic row is.
- **sale-month concentration**: Shopify: November 2025 was A$206,352 of A$1,478,463 gross (14%). The rate is taken over the full 12 months, so sale and non-sale months are both inside it. No single-season rate.

## 5. What is not counted
- Branded search (it sits on top, unchanged).
- Corporate orders invoiced outside Shopify.
- Clicks from outside Australia, AI-assistant referrals as their own channel, and any lift in conversion rate.
- The broader gifting and glassware terms sized in the territory table but left out of the core.